The Nigerian economy entered 2025 amid global turbulence marked by US-China trade realignments, frozen USAID funding, and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Regional instability intensified with military takeovers in parts of West Africa. Domestically, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration pursued sweeping economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, and tax restructuring. These measures, while seen by some as structurally necessary, triggered high inflation and reduced consumer spending. Poor communication and misaligned implementation frameworks weakened public confidence and limited the reforms' effectiveness. Rising insecurity across the country disrupted farming and transport, leading to lower agricultural output and food supply challenges. Despite Nigeria's initial caution, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has gained traction as a growth avenue, though local manufacturers are struggling to compete. The 2025 capital budget saw about 70% rolled over into 2026, with only 30% of capital allocations released by year-end, according to the 2026 Budget Call Circular.
President Tinubu's reforms are reshaping Nigeria's economy on paper, but the 70% rollover of the 2025 capital budget into 2026 reveals a gap between policy and execution. When capital projects are consistently deferred, infrastructure development stalls, and economic recovery remains theoretical for most citizens. This budgetary pattern suggests that even well-intentioned reforms may not translate into tangible progress without improved implementation capacity. For Nigerians, the real cost is not just in inflation, but in delayed development.
