Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State, has attributed Nigeria's sluggish economic growth to systemic misallocation of talent, arguing that the country's most skilled individuals are incentivised to pursue rent-seeking over productive enterprise. In a policy commentary published Tuesday on his social media platform and reviewed by BusinessDay, El-Rufai stated that Nigeria's core economic issue is not a lack of talent, capital, or ideas, but an incentive structure that rewards access to state power more than innovation. He cited Nigeria's 2024 GDP growth of 4.1 percent as inadequate given the nation's population, with GDP per capita at $1,084, placing it among lower-income economies.
El-Rufai highlighted that 93 percent of Nigeria's workforce operates in the informal sector, while the tax-to-GDP ratio stands at 8.2 percent, one of the lowest in Africa. He linked these figures to weak fiscal systems and an environment where visibility invites scrutiny rather than support. Nigeria's electricity supply remains below 5,300 megawatts for over 200 million people, and port vessel turnaround time averages five days, well above global standards.
He argued these conditions deter long-term investment and push talent toward regulatory brokerage. El-Rufai proposed reforms to prioritise value creation, including reducing government discretion, digitising regulations, boosting electricity to 8,000–10,000 megawatts, cutting port delays below four days, increasing wage employment to 18–20 percent, and raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10 percent.
That Nasir El-Rufai is diagnosing Nigeria's economy while facing trial for abuse of office adds a layer of irony to his commentary. His analysis of talent misallocation holds merit, particularly the observation that 93 percent of workers are in informal jobs and electricity supply remains below 5,300 megawatts. Yet, for a former governor whose administration was marked by controversial demolitions and centralised control, the call for reduced government discretion rings hollow. The real test of such ideas lies not in their articulation, but in whether those who once held power are willing to subject their own legacies to scrutiny.
