The African Union and the African Development Bank have warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a severe threat to Africa's economic stability, projecting a 0.2 percentage point reduction in the continent's GDP growth for 2026 if the war lasts beyond six months. The joint report, also supported by the UN Development Programme and the UN Economic Commission for Africa, highlights that the war has already disrupted trade and could escalate into a widespread cost-of-living crisis. With the Middle East accounting for 15.8 percent of Africa's imports and 10.9 percent of its exports, rising fuel and food prices, increased shipping and insurance costs, and exchange rate volatility are expected to strain household budgets and government finances. The report notes that 29 African currencies have already weakened, making imports more expensive and complicating debt repayment. Disruptions in liquefied natural gas supplies from the Gulf region could also hinder fertiliser production, threatening agricultural output during the critical planting season through May. While some countries may experience limited benefits—Nigeria from higher oil export revenues, Mozambique from increased liquefied natural gas demand, and port economies like South Africa, Namibia, and Mauritius from rerouted shipping—these gains are expected to be uneven and insufficient to counter broader economic pressures. Ethiopian Airlines is expanding its role as a key air link between Africa, Asia, and Europe, and Kenya is strengthening its position as a regional logistics hub. However, the report cautions that humanitarian aid costs could rise and donor funding might be redirected, worsening vulnerabilities. The full economic impact will depend on the duration and scale of the conflict and its effect on global energy, shipping, and supply chains.
When the African Union and AfDB project a 0.2 percentage point drag on Africa's GDP, they are not forecasting a distant threat but confirming an already unfolding crisis. The depreciation of 29 African currencies is not just a statistic—it means everyday goods are becoming unaffordable for millions. While rerouted ships may bring temporary port activity boosts, they cannot feed populations or stabilise budgets amid soaring fuel and fertiliser costs. This conflict is not foreign to Africa—it is already reshaping its economic reality.
