Nigeria's 2025–2026 cocoa midcrop is projected to rise by five percent compared to the previous season, thanks to favorable weather in major producing states. Farmers reported that intermittent rainfall since the beginning of the year has prevented dry spells, supporting healthy cocoa pod development and improving bean quality during drying. Adeola Adegoke, national president of the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria, credited the mix of sunshine and rain for the expected boost, stating, "The weather has been good. The intermittent rainfall that has helped our cocoa produce well during this midcrop." Nigeria, the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer, recorded 315,000 metric tons in the 2025 ICCO quarterly bulletin. The midcrop, harvested from April to June, contributes about 30 percent of annual output, with the main crop from October to December making up the rest. Despite the improved yield, Adegoke warned the increase could worsen oversupply in global markets, where prices have plummeted from $12,900 to $2,897 per ton. Domestically, cocoa prices have fallen 83 percent, from N15 million to N2.5 million per ton. Felix Oladunjoye, chairman of the Cocoa Processors Association of Nigeria, confirmed that soil moisture and sunlight conditions are optimal, saying, "Our bean quality will be better this year compared to last year."
A five percent rise in midcrop output means nothing to farmers earning a fraction of what they did a year ago. With cocoa prices down 83 percent locally, even better yields won't ease the financial strain on growers like those in Ondo and Ekiti. Adeola Adegoke's warning about oversupply drowning farmer incomes reveals a bitter truth: good weather now only deepens the crisis of low prices. For Nigerian cocoa farmers, producing more may actually mean losing more.
