Oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel or more if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, according to Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of energy consultancy FGE NexantECA. The warning comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East, which have tightened global oil supply expectations. Fesharaki pointed to market sentiment and comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump on social media as factors amplifying volatility. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes. Any prolonged disruption risks sending shockwaves through global energy markets. Brent crude, the international benchmark, currently trades significantly below that $200 level, but analysts say the trajectory is concerning. Geopolitical instability, coupled with speculative trading, is driving fears of a sharp price spike in the coming months.
Fereidun Fesharaki's $200 oil warning hinges on a scenario that remains speculative, not imminent. While the Strait of Hormuz faces periodic tensions, the direct link to Nigerian fuel prices is mediated by global markets and local subsidy policies. For Nigerians, this means pump prices could rise further if global crude spikes, especially without a stable domestic refining base. But until Nigeria stops importing refined petrol, such forecasts will keep holding the economy hostage.
