The Strait of Hormuz remained closed on Friday despite a two-day-old ceasefire between the United States and Iran, as Israel continued military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, undermining the fragile truce. U.S. President Donald Trump accused Iran of failing to allow oil shipments through the strategic waterway, stating on social media that Tehran was doing a "very poor job" and emphasizing, "That is not the agreement we have!" The blockade has triggered the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history, with spot oil prices in Asia and Europe reaching nearly $150 a barrel, even as futures prices dipped due to optimism over the ceasefire. Just one oil products tanker passed through the strait in the first 24 hours of the truce, compared to the usual 140 vessels daily.
The U.S. and Iran are set to begin peace talks in Islamabad on Saturday, with the Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and the U.S. side headed by Vice President JD Vance. Pakistani authorities placed the capital under complete lockdown, establishing a 3-km red zone around a luxury hotel cleared of guests to host the delegations. The Pakistani air force is expected to escort the Iranian delegation's plane. Although the ceasefire halted U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, it has not stopped Israel's campaign in Lebanon. Israeli forces launched deadly strikes on populated areas hours after the truce was announced, killing over 250 people. Iran insists the ceasefire includes Lebanon, a view initially backed by Pakistan, but the U.S. and Israel argue it does not. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Thursday that Israel would begin separate peace talks with Lebanon aimed at disarming Hezbollah.
March U.S. inflation data, due Friday, will offer the first official insight into the war's impact on consumer prices.
The most revealing element of this crisis is not the breakdown of the ceasefire, but the selective interpretation of its terms by each party—especially Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon while Washington declares progress. Trump's claim of a deal on oil flows directly contradicts the reality at the Strait of Hormuz, where only a trickle of tankers have passed, exposing a dangerous gap between political messaging and operational reality. The fact that Netanyahu shifted position only after regional and international pressure mounted suggests the truce was less a negotiated outcome and more a tactical pause shaped by external constraints.
This episode fits into a broader pattern of U.S.-brokered Middle East agreements that address symptoms while ignoring root dynamics. Past deals, such as the 2015 Iran nuclear accord or the 2020 Abraham Accords, similarly created diplomatic optics without altering strategic postures. Here, the inclusion of Pakistan as mediator reflects a quiet shift in diplomatic weight, with non-Western powers stepping in where traditional actors have lost leverage. The use of Islamabad as a neutral ground underscores growing multipolarity in conflict resolution, even as the core issues—regional influence, energy security, and non-state armed groups—remain unaddressed.
For African and developing nations, the immediate concern is the sustained spike in oil prices near $150 a barrel, which threatens already fragile economies dependent on imported fuel. Nigeria, despite being an oil producer, often subsidizes domestic fuel and remains vulnerable to global price swings due to refining inefficiencies. Prolonged supply disruptions could worsen inflation and strain foreign reserves, mirroring the 2022 energy crisis but with fewer fiscal buffers.
The next critical development to watch is whether the U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad produce a verifiable agreement on Strait of Hormuz access—not just statements. Without that, the ceasefire risks becoming another short-lived pause in a broader, accelerating conflict.
