The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) will increase crude oil supply to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to seven cargoes in May 2026, up from five in previous months. The move is part of a broader strategy to prioritise domestic crude allocation to local refineries. However, the supply remains below the refinery's 650,000-barrel-per-day processing capacity. The National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria, Colman Obasi, described the allocation as insufficient, noting that global supply disruptions make increased domestic refining more urgent. "The government has over the years promised to supply adequate crude oil to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other plants. But seven cargoes appear to be insufficient," Obasi said in an interview with Vanguard.
An industry expert, speaking anonymously, urged Nigeria to allocate more crude to local refineries to reduce fuel imports and preserve foreign exchange. Dangote Refinery CEO David Bird told ARISE News that the facility is entitled to 13 to 15 cargoes monthly under the crude-for-naira programme but currently receives only five. "Currently, we're only getting five. So, that's an underperformance against that pre-agreed volume contract," Bird said. He added that the shortfall results in Nigeria losing potential revenue from market premiums. Bird stressed that the crude-for-naira policy supports national economic stability, not just the refinery's operations. Despite supply constraints, the refinery continues to run at full capacity, serving Nigeria and neighbouring countries.
Promising seven crude cargoes while agreeing to 15 exposes a gap between NNPCL's commitments and delivery. David Bird's revelation that Nigeria is losing premium value to international traders turns a supply shortfall into a fiscal leak. If the state cannot meet its own contractual obligations, the crude-for-naira policy risks becoming a mechanism that subsidises global markets at Nigeria's expense. This isn't mismanagement—it's a structural flaw with a price tag.
