Nigeria's crude oil production increased to 1.38 million barrels per day in March, up from 1.31 million barrels per day in February, according to OPEC's monthly oil market report. The 5.25 per cent rise reflects a gradual recovery in output, though the country remains below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, falling short by approximately 117,000 barrels. The data was sourced directly from Nigerian authorities.
Despite the shortfall, Nigeria maintained its status as Africa's top oil producer, ahead of Libya, which recorded 1.30 million barrels per day in the same month. A secondary OPEC data stream, based on different estimation methods, reported Nigeria's March output at 1.46 million barrels per day, up slightly from 1.44 million in February. This discrepancy between reporting sources is not new and has long complicated assessments of Nigeria's true production levels. The confusion deepened on 4th April when the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission claimed production had hit 1.84 million barrels per day. By 8th April, NNPC Group Chief Executive Bashir Ojulari stated output was 1.71 million barrels per day, further highlighting inconsistencies in official figures.
The most striking detail in Nigeria's latest oil output data is not the rise in production, but the sheer divergence in numbers from official institutions. With the regulator claiming 1.84 million barrels per day and the NNPC chief citing 1.71 million just four days later, the lack of a unified, credible data source undermines transparency and investor confidence. When key agencies cannot agree on a single figure, it signals deeper systemic disarray in the sector.
This inconsistency occurs against a backdrop of efforts to stabilise Nigeria's oil output and attract foreign investment, particularly with the planned $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline. Yet, without reliable data, policy decisions risk being based on fiction rather than fact. The gap between Nigeria's actual production and its OPEC quota also means lost revenue, as the country fails to earn full value from its allocated share. The recurring split between OPEC's direct and secondary reporting further exposes the opacity that has long plagued the industry.
Ordinary Nigerians bear the cost of this disorganisation through lost economic opportunities and continued reliance on volatile oil revenues. Regions dependent on oil-related infrastructure and employment see little benefit when production figures are inflated or contradictory. For investors, the conflicting data creates uncertainty, discouraging the capital inflows needed for sector growth.
This episode fits a long-standing pattern: Nigeria announces progress in oil production, but execution and accountability lag.
