The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reported that Nigeria imported approximately 5.9 million litres of petroleum per day in March 2026, up from 3 million litres per day in February 2026. Petrol consumption fell to 47.3 million litres per day in March from 56.9 million litres per day in February. The Dangote Refinery supplied 34.2 million litres per day of petrol to the domestic market in March, down from 48.2 million litres per day in February. Daily supply of diesel, or Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), dropped to 10.3 million litres in March from 24.4 million litres in February. Domestic diesel production fell to 3.9 million litres per day from 8.8 million litres, while imports declined to 6.4 million litres from 15.6 million litres in the same period. Diesel consumption also decreased to 14.5 million litres per day in March from 20.3 million litres in February. Dangote Refinery's diesel contribution was 2.2 million litres per day in March, down from 16.5 million litres per day earlier. Three modular refineries — Walter Smith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel — collectively supplied 0.629 million litres per day of diesel in March.
Dangote Refinery's output drop in March 2026 exposed Nigeria's near-total dependence on a single private facility for fuel supply. With domestic refinery capacity still offline and imports rising, any disruption at Dangote could immediately trigger nationwide shortages. The plunge in diesel supply and rising imports show the market remains fragile despite local production. Nigerians are paying lower pump prices now, but the lack of competition means stability hinges on one company's operations.
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