Nigeria's average daily crude output fell short of the 1.5‑million‑barrel quota set by OPEC for March 2026, registering 1.38 million barrels per day, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report released in April showed. The figure represented a rise of 69,000 bpd from February's 1.31 million but remained 117,000 bpd below the quota. February's output had dropped by 146,000 bpd month‑on‑month, extending the shortfall that has persisted for eight consecutive months since July 2025. Earlier in the year, production climbed from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459 mbpd in January 2026 before slipping again in February. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicated a decline from 1.436 mbpd in November 2025 to 1.422 mbpd in December, with a modest rebound in January. In 2025, Nigeria missed its quota in nine months, meeting or slightly exceeding it only in January, June and July. The CEO of the Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission later claimed total oil production (crude and condensate) reached 1.8 mbpd in March, while an official told The PUNCH that maintenance resumptions had sparked a mid‑March recovery and expressed optimism about meeting the quota in April. The shortfall is reported to be curbing export earnings and limiting feedstock for domestic refineries, prompting the NNPC to source third‑party crude for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery at competitive prices.
The stark contrast between the regulator's CEO announcing 1.8 million barrels per day in March and OPEC's figure of 1.38 million underscores a credibility gap in Nigeria's oil reporting. This discrepancy fuels uncertainty for investors and policymakers alike.
The persistent under‑performance reflects deeper operational challenges: routine turnaround maintenance, aging infrastructure and a reliance on a quota that has been missed for eight straight months. While OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq imposed steep cuts, Nigeria's output has barely moved, and the government's effort to import crude for the Dangote refinery signals a widening supply gap for domestic processing.
Ordinary Nigerians feel the pinch through higher fuel costs and reduced refinery throughput, which can translate into shortages of gasoline and diesel. Communities surrounding the refinery and transport sectors are especially vulnerable as the nation struggles to replace lost feedstock with imported crude.
These recurring shortfalls echo a broader pattern of chronic production volatility that has plagued Nigeria since 2025, raising doubts about the country's ability to meet both its OPEC commitments and its own energy security goals.
