Sports • 2h ago
NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket picks, Cinderella teams, best upsets: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times
Entering the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, only one mid-major has claimed the national title over the last 35 years. That was UConn, which was outside of a power conference while in the AAC in 2014. The Huskies are one of many power teams hoping to keep their dominance going in the 2026 March Madness bracket alongside teams like Florida, Duke and Michigan. However, mid-majors such as Saint Louis, Miami (OH) and Saint Mary's have dreams of being a Cinderella and having deep tourney runs in the March Madness 2026 bracket.
No. 3 Gonzaga is the highest-seeded mid-major in the NCAA Tournament bracket 2026. It could have potential matchups with No. 2 Purdue and No. 1 Arizona before even reaching the Final Four. Gonzaga is no longer a Cinderella considering its sustained success, but is it the mid-major with the best chance of cutting down the nets? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the 2026 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Villanova vs. No. 9 seed Utah State in the West Region. Villanova has been one of the top teams in college basketball in recent years, winning the NCAA Tournament in 2016 and 2018 before making another trip to the Final Four in 2022. The Wildcats join Ohio State as the only programs that have played in the NCAA Tournament in every decade since the 1930s. Utah State is back in the Big Dance for the fourth year in a row as it tries to make a run to the Final Four for the first time since 1970.
Also in the West Region, Miami vs. Missouri figures to be a pivotal 7 vs. 10 matchup. The 10th-seeded Tigers get the luxury of having the location advantage, with this contest taking place in St. Louis. But Mizzou limps into this game, losing three straight, and the Tigers haven't defeated a single-digit seed in the NCAA tourney since 2010. As for Miami, it has made the Elite Eight, at least, in each of its last two March Madness appearances. This year's Canes thrive inside the arc, averaging the fifth-most made 2-pointers per game but struggle on the perimeter, sitting 296th nationally in made 3-pointers.
The third matchup to watch in the West Region is No. 4 seed Arkansas vs. No. 13 seed Hawaii. Arkansas took a big step in Year 2 under coach John Calipari. The Razorbacks went 26-8 and just won the SEC Tournament, knocking off a red-hot Vanderbilt squad in the championship matchup just a few hours before the Selection Show. The Razorbacks rank fifth nationally in scoring offense (90.1 PPG). The Razorbacks, however, are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. That's an area Hawaii thrives in, so the Rainbow Warriors could dominate the glass enough to make this one interesting. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2026? And which 2026 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that's nailed 25 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last seven tournaments.