Crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February, disrupting a key maritime route that previously carried about 20 million barrels per day—20 per cent of global supply. The conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran has triggered one of the largest oil supply shocks in history, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In response, IEA member countries released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, but prices remain elevated due to a 10 million-barrel-per-day output cut by Gulf producers.
In Nigeria, petrol prices have risen by over 25 per cent, with retail prices climbing from N870 to N1,361 per litre in many areas. As of 30 March, Nigeria's average petrol price stood at N1,270 per litre ($0.916), higher than in several African and oil-producing nations including Egypt, Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Iran. The Dangote Refinery has contributed to the upward trend, adjusting its gantry prices multiple times and driving an estimated 30 per cent increase in pump prices nationwide.
The federal government is promoting Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicle conversions to ease reliance on petrol. Nigeria's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, said the crisis underscores global energy vulnerabilities and could position Nigeria as a strategic partner during supply disruptions.
Nigeria is paying more for petrol than most oil-producing and non-producing countries despite being Africa's largest crude exporter. The Dangote Refinery's repeated price adjustments are feeding inflation, not shielding consumers. While higher oil prices may boost government revenue, the 1991 windfall—where $12 billion disappeared without public accountability—shows why Nigerians should not expect lasting benefit from today's surge.
