Imported petrol is now 12% cheaper than fuel produced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, according to the World Bank. The multilateral institution disclosed the price disparity in its latest Nigeria Development Update, warning it could worsen inflationary pressures in the country. Despite the refinery's launch with the promise of lowering fuel costs, petrol imported into Nigeria is being sold at a lower price than Dangote's locally refined product. The World Bank did not specify exact pricing but confirmed the gap exists in the current market. Dangote Group has denied increasing its pump price, maintaining that its PMS remains at N1,200 per litre. The refinery began commercial operations in January 2024 and was expected to reduce Nigeria's dependence on imported fuel. However, the current pricing trend raises questions about the competitiveness of its output in the domestic market. Nigeria still imports the majority of its petrol despite having domestic refining capacity coming online.
The Dangote Refinery's inability to undercut imported petrol prices undermines its core value proposition. A facility built on the promise of cheaper, home-refined fuel is now selling at a premium, with imported PMS 12% lower in price. This reversal exposes a critical gap between nationalist expectations and market realities.
The World Bank's report highlights structural inefficiencies that persist even with new domestic capacity. Nigeria's fuel market remains vulnerable to foreign supply chains, exchange rate fluctuations, and import logistics that should theoretically make imported petrol more expensive. Yet, Dangote's product is costlier, suggesting high operational expenses, pricing strategies, or hidden subsidies in the import system. The claim that petrol remains at N1,200 per litre from Dangote may be accurate, but if imported fuel is clearing customs and reaching pumps below that, consumers and retailers are making rational economic choices.
Ordinary Nigerians who expected relief at the pump are not seeing tangible benefits. Motorists, transporters, and small businesses relying on fuel-intensive operations continue to face high costs, regardless of the source. The economic advantage of local refining is not being passed down.
This reflects a broader pattern: grand infrastructure projects often fail to deliver immediate, measurable improvements in daily life.
