The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that disruptions to jet fuel supply could last months even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, due to damaged refining capacity in the Middle East. IATA Director-General Willie Walsh said in Singapore on Wednesday that while crude oil prices may decline, jet fuel costs will remain high because of the lag in refining recovery. "If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be," Walsh stated. He compared the current crisis to the aftermath of the September 11 attacks and the Global Financial Crisis, rather than the demand-driven shock of the pandemic.
Airlines across Asia are already cutting flights, adding refuelling stops, and carrying extra fuel. Walsh noted Gulf carriers may see temporary capacity cuts, but other regions cannot fully compensate. Countries like India and Nigeria could increase refined output short-term, though global recovery depends on stabilised crude flows and elevated refining margins incentivising production. The Strait, handling 20% of global energy shipments, closed after tensions between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirming passage would resume under Iranian military oversight. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned attacks on Iranian infrastructure could violate international law.
In Nigeria, Jet A-1 prices rose from N950–N1,000 per litre to over N2,000. The Dangote Refinery, supplying over 90% of the country's jet fuel, follows global benchmarks like Platts, where prices jumped from $780–$850 to over $1,600 per metric ton. Brent and WTI crude prices have softened, but jet fuel costs are expected to stay high until refining stabilises.
Nigeria's reliance on imported jet fuel pricing means even a ceasefire won't bring quick relief at home. The Dangote Refinery, despite local production, cannot insulate Nigerian airlines from global refining shocks. This exposes a structural vulnerability: national energy security hinges on facilities and markets far beyond domestic control. Until Nigeria builds deeper refining autonomy, fuel costs will remain hostage to distant crises.
