Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the start of the conflict with Iran, reaching $198 per barrel in the week ending April 10, prompting widespread flight cancellations across the Asia-Pacific region. The surge follows the United States' decision to block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran collapsed, effectively closing the waterway that carries about 20 per cent of the world's oil supply. With supply chains disrupted, airlines in countries lacking strategic fuel reserves are scaling back operations. Philippine Airlines has suspended five routes and is working to reduce further disruptions as conditions remain unstable. Vietnam Airlines cancelled 23 weekly flights in March, according to Vietnam's civil aviation authority. Air New Zealand reduced its flight schedule by 4 per cent, affecting 1 per cent of passengers, the airline confirmed on April 7. Pakistan International Airlines has cut services to Beijing, Kuala Lumpur and several Middle Eastern destinations due to rising fuel costs. In South Korea, flight cancellations are expected to continue through May, local media reported. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned that the situation could deteriorate further after the U.S. began restricting traffic at Iranian seaports. Airlines are now reviewing contingency plans as the availability and affordability of jet fuel remain uncertain. Industry officials say long-term disruptions could reshape regional air travel patterns if alternative supply routes are not established quickly.
The most immediate impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure is not on oil-producing nations but on Asia's mid-tier airlines, many of which operate on thin margins and lack access to emergency fuel stockpiles. The fact that carriers like Philippine Airlines and Vietnam Airlines are already suspending routes highlights how quickly geopolitical shocks can destabilize commercial aviation in regions dependent on imported fuel. This is not merely a logistics issue but a structural vulnerability exposed by reliance on a single maritime corridor for energy supplies.
Globally, this episode underscores a shift in energy security dynamics, where control over chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly wielded as a strategic tool, with secondary victims across the supply chain. The U.S. move to block Iranian seaports signals a broader willingness to enforce energy blockades unilaterally, a tactic that risks fragmenting global markets along political lines. History shows similar disruptions during the 1980s Tanker War, but today's tightly optimized aviation sector has less room for shock absorption.
For African and developing nations, the ripple effect could be higher transport and import costs if fuel prices remain elevated, even without direct exposure to the conflict. Nigeria, which imports refined petroleum despite being an oil producer, could face renewed pressure on fuel subsidies and air travel affordability if global refining capacity becomes strained.
A key development to watch is whether India and China accelerate use of overland energy routes from Central Asia to bypass the Strait, potentially reshaping long-term energy logistics in the Global South.
