Will Russia start a fresh mobilization drive?

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be planning a fresh mobilization drive, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who cited intelligence reports indicating preparations are underway despite official denials from Moscow. Zelenskyy warned that Putin is concealing his intentions while seeking to intensify attacks in Ukraine, even as Russia struggles to recruit enough soldiers. Independent Russian exile media Verstka and the Latvia-based Vaschnyje Istorii reported in late June that recruitment numbers have sharply declined, with Moscow sending 1,708 fighters to the front in April and 1,378 in May—around 1,000 fewer than the same period last year. The outlets also cited sources across Russian regions stating that enlistment rates for contract soldiers have more than halved since late 2025 and continued to drop in early 2026.

Military personnel interviewed by Verstka described units as being staffed at only 30 to 40% capacity, with many new recruits deemed unfit for combat and some fleeing the front lines. The US-based Institute for the Study of War reported in late July that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for renewed mobilization, though analysts noted the decision rests solely on Putin's assessment of battlefield conditions and internal stability. Demand for rental apartments in Armenia has surged, with rents in Yerevan rising by about 30%, reportedly driven by Russians planning to leave ahead of the State Duma elections set for September 18–20. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed Zelenskyy's claims, stating it is not the Ukrainian president's role to speak on Russia's military plans. Federation Council member Andrei Klishas said in early summer 2026 that no new mobilization was under discussion, while Dmitry Medvedev called such rumors "pre-election propaganda," claiming 200,000 people had enlisted in the first half of 2026.

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