Labour Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham is contesting a by-election in Makerfield on Thursday in a move that could position him to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons, the former Labour MP for Makerfield, who stepped down to allow Burnham a path into Parliament. Simons, citing a lack of hope and energy for change within the government, described the move as Burnham "coming home," noting he has lived in the area for 25 years. Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester and a former cabinet minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, is not an MP and therefore ineligible to stand for Labour leadership without first entering Parliament. His previous attempt to enter via a by-election in Gorton and Denton failed when Labour lost the seat to the Green Party.
The Makerfield race has drawn national attention amid collapsing support for Labour in local government. In last month's council elections, Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats while Reform UK surged from 100 to about 1,450 seats, capitalising on anti-immigration sentiment and discontent in traditional Labour strongholds. Reform UK's candidate in Makerfield, Robert Kenyon, has faced backlash over alleged sexist and misogynistic social media posts but remains competitive, polling at 41 percent among likely voters compared to Burnham's 46 percent. Reform UK came second in Makerfield in the 2024 general election, and the party is seen as a serious threat to Labour's hold on the seat, which it has won continuously since 1983. Prime Minister Starmer is facing growing internal pressure, compounded by the resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns over the UK's defence budget. Polling by Ipsos shows Starmer is now the most unpopular prime minister since the late 1970s. A Burnham victory in Makerfield could trigger a leadership challenge, with recent polls indicating he is the only figure within the party who could defeat Starmer in a head-to-head contest.
Andy Burnham's attempt to enter Parliament through a handpicked by-election seat undermines Labour's claim of democratic renewal under Keir Starmer. The orchestrated vacancy in Makerfield exposes a party increasingly reliant on insider manoeuvres rather than voter mandate. With Reform UK gaining ground by exploiting real discontent in post-industrial towns, Labour's internal power plays risk deepening the disconnect with its base.
Editorial note: AI-assisted opinion, not established fact. Full disclaimer →
