**Regime Change in Iran: A Hazy Future Ahead** As the news of Ayatollah Khamenei's passing sent shockwaves around the world, many expected a swift collapse of the Iranian government. However, the reality on the ground paints a different picture. Despite US President Donald Trump's assertion that his military campaign would trigger regime change in Tehran, Iran's ruling establishment remains firmly in control. In Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria's security agencies are on high alert, anticipating potential reprisals from Iranian sympathizers. Yet, there's been no public uprising in Iran, with many citizens seemingly wary of plunging into chaos. The memories of US-backed interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, which led to protracted instability and civil conflict, are still fresh in their minds. The interim leadership in Iran has shown remarkable resilience, and key state institutions remain intact. This has raised questions about the Islamic Republic's vulnerability to collapse. While Western leaders continue to call for Iranians to rise up against their government, the Iranian public remains cautious, fearing the aftermath of foreign-backed interventions. As air passengers are stranded across the Middle East due to airspace closures and flight cancellations, oil prices have surged above $80 per barrel. The escalating military strikes in the region have created a tense atmosphere, with analysts warning of the risks of externally driven political transitions. The examples of Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, and others serve as cautionary tales of the unpredictable nature of regime change. Nigeria, like many other countries, is closely watching the unfolding drama in Iran. The potential implications of a regime change in Tehran are too numerous to ignore. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the future of Iran remains uncertain, with many questions unanswered. Will the Islamic Republic collapse, or will it emerge stronger than ever? Only time will tell.