The Trump administration voiced optimism about ending its war with Iran on Wednesday, even as it intensified economic threats against Tehran, including potential secondary sanctions on countries buying Iranian oil. President Donald Trump stated he believes the conflict launched with Israel on February 28 is nearing its conclusion, despite a newly enforced U.S. shipping blockade and sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described recent Pakistan-mediated talks as "productive and ongoing," though no breakthrough was reached during the previous weekend's negotiations. She denied reports that the U.S. had formally requested an extension of the two-week ceasefire agreed on April 8. U.S. and Iranian officials are considering resuming talks in Pakistan as early as the coming weekend. Pakistani military officials confirmed Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to help narrow differences between the two sides, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi welcomed Munir on X, reaffirming Iran's commitment to regional peace. The conflict has triggered Iranian attacks on Gulf neighbours and reignited hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that China's purchases of Iranian oil would likely pause due to the blockade, and said the U.S. could sanction countries continuing to buy Iranian crude. He confirmed the Treasury had warned two unnamed Chinese banks against processing Iranian funds. Bessent likened the financial pressure to the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that damaged Iran's military capabilities, adding that waivers allowing purchases of some Iranian and Russian oil without penalty would not be renewed. Despite the blockade, Iran's Fars News Agency reported that a sanctioned Iranian supertanker reached Imam Khomeini port after crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's joint military command issued a warning that it would disrupt trade in the Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea, including routes linked to the Suez Canal, if the U.S. persists.
The Trump administration's simultaneous push for peace and escalation of financial threats reveals a strategy built on coercion rather than diplomacy, with the real target appearing to be not just Iran but also China, given the explicit warning over oil transactions. By threatening secondary sanctions on oil buyers and targeting Chinese banks, the U.S. is leveraging the conflict to disrupt Iran's primary economic lifeline at a moment when Beijing has been its largest customer, turning energy trade into a geopolitical battleground.
This approach fits a broader pattern of using financial isolation as a weapon, particularly under Trump, who previously withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed harsh sanctions. The current pressure tactics echo past strategies but are now layered with military posturing and regional instability, making any durable agreement harder to achieve. The reliance on Pakistan as a mediator also signals a shift in informal diplomatic channels, with non-Western powers playing increasingly central roles in managing U.S.-Iran tensions.
For African and Nigerian economies, the immediate impact lies in global oil market volatility. While Nigeria is not directly involved, prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or a wider Gulf conflict could spike crude prices, affecting both fuel import costs and inflation. Any sustained rise in oil prices may offer short-term revenue gains for oil-producing nations but risks destabilizing fragile economies through higher energy and transport costs.
The next move to watch is whether China complies with U.S. pressure or continues covert oil purchases, which could determine whether the financial squeeze on Iran holds or unravels.
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