Sixteen traders each made over $100,000 by accurately betting on the timing of US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February, according to a New York Times analysis. The bets, placed on the online platform Polymarket, were part of a broader pattern of unusually well-timed wagers tied to key developments in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. On the night before the strikes, about 150 accounts collectively placed $855,000 on the likelihood of military action the following day. Later, a single Polymarket user operating under the name "Magamyman" earned $553,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be "removed" from power just moments before he was killed in an Israeli airstrike. A complaint filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by consumer advocacy group Public Citizen identified six "suspected insiders" who collectively made $1.2 million on Polymarket following Khamenei's assassination. Another surge in betting occurred on 7 April, when at least 50 accounts predicted a ceasefire between the US and Iran hours before Donald Trump announced it on Truth Social. Traders also placed $950 million on oil futures the same day, betting that prices would drop—a move that paid off after the ceasefire announcement. On 23 March, $580 million was wagered on oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump stated on social media that the US was having "productive" talks with Iran, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices. Experts and lawmakers have raised concerns about the possibility of insider trading across prediction and commodity markets. "We can't say from the outset whether any of these trades were illegal," said Andrew Verstein, a law professor at UCLA. "But many of them bear the hallmarks of suspicious trades that would naturally warrant investigation." Joshua Mitts, a Columbia University law professor, questioned whether existing laws are enforceable given technological challenges. The CFTC has not confirmed any investigation, though anonymous sources told Reuters and Bloomberg it is examining oil futures trades from 27 March and 7 April. Arizona has filed criminal charges against Polymarket for allowing bets on elections.
Someone knew when airstrikes would hit, when a supreme leader would die, and when oil prices would crash—enough to place multimillion-dollar bets minutes in advance. If this is just luck, it is the most consistent stroke of chance in financial history. No Nigerian or African actors are mentioned in these trades, but the implications of unregulated prediction markets could easily spill into emerging economies with weaker oversight. When bets align this precisely with geopolitical shocks, the line between speculation and foreknowledge disappears.
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