Putin’s strategy is that Ukraine will fall before he does: Ex-FM Kuleba
World • 6d ago
**War without End: Ukraine's Former FM Speaks on Russia's Tactics**
As Ukraine marks its fourth year since Russia's full-scale invasion, the conflict shows no signs of abating. We spoke to Dmytro Kuleba, the nation's former foreign minister, about the war's trajectory and what lessons can be learned from this prolonged struggle.
Kuleba, who now resides in Kyiv, shared his insights with Al Jazeera, reflecting on the shifting definitions of victory, the growing fractures among Ukraine's allies, and the delicate dance of negotiations with Moscow. With the war entering its fifth year, is there any room for optimism? Kuleba's response is stark: "Optimism should be rooted in reality, and there will be no ceasefire until the end of winter in Ukraine." He means not just the calendar winter, but the harsh conditions imposed by Russia's relentless attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving millions without power and warmth.
So, what drives Russia's actions? Kuleba believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy is simple: "Ukraine will fall before he does." This conviction fuels Putin's determination to crush the Ukrainian resistance, even if it means prolonging the war. Russia's negotiating tactics, Kuleba notes, are not about finding a genuine solution, but about testing the limits of what can be achieved at the negotiating table while continuing to pursue military gains.
As the war drags on, Ukraine's allies are growing restless, and fractures are emerging. Kuleba acknowledges that even he, as a former foreign minister, underestimated the war's duration. "When war breaks out, your first instinct is to believe that it's not going to last long," he says. Yet, he also recognized the possibility of a long war, even if he didn't expect it to last four years.
The war's impact on Ukraine and the international community is profound. Kuleba's words serve as a reminder that the conflict's outcome will depend on two critical factors: Russia's military successes and the state of its economy. If Russia manages to break through on the battlefield, it will have little incentive to negotiate a ceasefire. Conversely, if the Russian economy falters under the weight of mounting problems, it may create an opportunity for a new path forward.
As the world watches the unfolding drama, one thing is clear: the war in Ukraine is far from over. Kuleba's words offer a sobering assessment of the challenges ahead, but