Depot prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in Nigeria could fall to N1,000 per litre as global crude oil prices decline after the United States and Iran proposed a peace deal. Brent crude, the benchmark for Nigeria's oil, dropped to $83.3 per barrel, down more than 4 percent since the announcement by US President Donald Trump over the weekend. West Texas Intermediate traded at $80.5 per barrel on Monday afternoon.
The anticipated price drop follows market trends observed in March when Brent crude traded around $84 per barrel and Dangote Petroleum Refinery adjusted its gantry price for PMS to N1,075 per litre. A source within Dangote Refinery confirmed that a reduction is likely, though timing depends on the refinery's ability to deplete existing stock of crude purchased at higher prices. "Yes, N900 per litre petrol is possible if oil prices settle down, but we still have the expensive crude stock in our tanks," the source said.
Another refinery official stated that global oil prices will remain the key factor in future pricing. "If oil prices continue to fall and the US-Iran deal is signed, most likely there is going to be a deduction in price," the source added. Independent marketers have responded by slowing fresh purchases of petrol and diesel, opting for a wait-and-see approach. Some are reducing inventory to avoid holding high-cost stock ahead of expected price cuts.
The shift in purchasing behaviour could increase competition among downstream players, especially in Lagos, where private depot operators have recently used aggressive pricing. Analysts suggest sustained low crude prices may lead to broader pump price reductions across Nigeria. The recent diplomatic progress has eased concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to weaker oil markets. However, experts note that exchange rates, logistics costs, and existing procurement contracts will influence the speed and extent of any domestic price adjustment.
Dangote Refinery signals possible N900 petrol while still processing high-cost crude, exposing a lag between global prices and local relief. Consumers may not see immediate savings despite falling oil benchmarks due to prior procurement decisions. This delay prolongs financial pressure on households and businesses already coping with high energy costs. Market speculation and inventory strategies now shape fuel affordability more than real-time global trends.
Editorial note: AI-assisted opinion, not established fact. Full disclaimer →
