Nigeria's rice growers are trimming back the 2026 planting calendar as paddy prices tumble, production expenses rise and the milling sector falters. A ton of paddy now fetches N350,800, a 51 percent drop from the 2025 peak of N720,000, a decline attributed to a flood of cheap imports and smuggling. President Bola Tinubu's agenda to lift domestic food output faces a setback, given rice's status as the nation's staple grain.

Muhammed Augie, former state chairman of the Rice Farmers Association in Kebbi, said fewer than 30 percent of the state's more than 500,000 rice farmers cultivated the crop during the dry season that ended this year. "They are pulling back now for the upcoming wet season," he warned, noting that Kebbi supplies over 70 percent of national rice production. Augie added that many are turning to sorghum, soybean and sesame as the local market shrinks after the milling industry nearly collapsed.

A USDA March 2026 report projects the rice‑cultivated area to fall 7 percent to 4.2 million hectares in 2026/27, citing low prices, high costs and insecurity. "Low rice prices continue to discourage farmers from expanding production, even amid expected increases in rice consumption," the report stated.

Jigawa farmer Musa Idris, who once tended 40‑50 hectares, now farms only five hectares, explaining that mill closures since 2024 have made paddy cultivation unprofitable.

Peter Dama, national chairman of the Rice Millers Association of Nigeria, said local millers cannot match imports because they must fund their own power, water, roads and security, unlike producers in India, Thailand and Vietnam who receive government support.

Estimates show Nigeria needs about 7 million metric tons of milled rice annually, while domestic output stands at roughly 4.6 million metric tons. Recent fiscal policy lowered import duties on bulk rice to 47.5

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