Governor Ademola Adeleke's campaign organisation has declared the Osun State 2026 political landscape firmly in favour of the governor and his Accord Party. The statement came in response to claims by the Osun APC Director-General, Wole Oke, that the APC would reclaim the state in the upcoming August elections, citing Adeleke's 28,000-vote margin in 2022 and subsequent defections. The campaign group dismissed the assertion as fantasy, insisting that political allegiance across the state's nine federal constituencies has shifted significantly. It cited mass defections from the APC to the Accord Party, rejection of defectors by their communities, and rising approval for Adeleke as key indicators.
The organisation highlighted that over 90 percent of voting groups across Osun now back Adeleke, including in Boripe Local Government Area, the hometown of former governor Gboyega Oyetola. Even Ikire, home of the APC's 2022 candidate, is said to be aligned with the governor. The campaign noted that old APC strongholds have become Accord strongholds and that grassroots groups, labour movements, and electoral protection networks have mobilised in support. It praised President Bola Tinubu for promoting a level playing field, stating he has resisted pressure to interfere in Osun's electoral process.
Wole Oke's projection of an APC resurgence based on a 28,000-vote margin from 2022 exposes a fundamental misreading of Osun's current political dynamics. Governor Ademola Adeleke's campaign is not merely defending past gains but asserting dominance across former APC strongholds, including Boripe and Ikire, with claims of over 90 percent voter group backing. This shift, if accurate, signals a near-total realignment of political loyalty less than four years after a tightly contested election.
The narrative of mass defections to the Accord Party and the emergence of grassroots electoral protection groups suggest a deeper recalibration of power beyond party symbolism. The campaign's emphasis on a five-point agenda communicated in local languages and a published compendium of achievements indicates a strategy rooted in visible governance and cultural resonance. Meanwhile, the APC's failure to release a manifesto contrasts with the governor's detailed public accountability efforts, widening the perception gap between incumbency delivery and opposition positioning.
For ordinary Osun residents, particularly in rural communities and local government areas once considered APC fortresses, this realignment could mean sustained access to state-led development initiatives and a stronger sense of political inclusion. Farmers, traders, and civil servants who benefit from ongoing projects may see Adeleke's consolidation as a guarantee of policy continuity.
This story reflects a broader trend in Nigerian subnational politics: gubernatorial incumbents leveraging targeted delivery and grassroots mobilisation to reshape electoral landscapes within a single term.
