Election boycotts by opposition parties have become more frequent since the end of the Cold War, with a rise in contested elections across new democracies in Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America. While only 4% of global elections were boycotted in 1989, that figure rose to 15% by 2002, with nearly 10 elections boycotted annually between 1995 and 2004. Examples include Cote D'Ivoire in 2000, where voter turnout dropped to 37.4%, and Gambia's 2002 parliamentary election, as well as Guinea's 2003 poll. The Ivorian presidential election in 2020 also saw a boycott. In Zimbabwe, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) lost 16 parliamentary seats in 2005 due to delays in candidate registration linked to internal debate over boycotting. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangarai later boycotted the Senate election, calling it a rubber stamp for Robert Mugabe, leading to a split in the party. ZANU-PF won 49 of 66 Senate seats in that election. Tsvangarai returned to contest the 2008 elections, achieving near-parity in parliamentary seats, but boycotted the presidential runoff after falling short of 50% in the first round. Mugabe won the runoff by default. A power-sharing deal followed, but Mugabe retained the presidency. In South Africa's 1994 election, Mangosuthu Buthelezi threatened to boycott, citing an unfair process, which led to international pressure on Nelson Mandela's government. This resulted in the abolition of the single vote system and constitutional amendments on local self-government. The threat of boycott can yield concessions, especially when it draws international attention. However, actual withdrawal from elections often weakens opposition influence. Late decisions to participate also harm electoral readiness, as registration deadlines may be missed. In Nigeria's 1964 regional elections, the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) opposed the return of 60 candidates unopposed, including Alhaji Shehu Shagari at Sokoto West, Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim at Konduga-Mafa, and Alhaji Abdul Razak at Ilorin Town. Unopposed returns also occurred in the North, where Alhaji Zanna Buka Dipcharima, Alhaji Jalo Waziri and Alhaji Inua Wada were elected without contest. On December 21, 1964, the NCNC's Central Working Committee rejected the 61 unopposed candidates in the North.
Morgan Tsvangarai first weakened his party by boycotting Zimbabwe's Senate election, then undermined his own presidential bid by skipping the runoff. His actions allowed Robert Mugabe to claim victory without contest and retain power. The power-sharing deal that followed still left Mugabe in control of the presidency. Boycotting elections may draw attention but hands the field to incumbents.
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