Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ members increased their collective oil production quota by 188,000 barrels per day starting in June. The decision followed an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, with the group citing a "collective commitment to support oil market stability." The move mirrors increases from March and April, adjusted for the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from the bloc on Friday. The OPEC+ statement made no mention of the UAE's departure.
Analyst Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said the silence indicates strained relations within the group. He described the quota adjustment as a deliberate effort to project unity and downplay internal divisions. Despite the paper increase, actual output remains constrained by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are among the Gulf producers affected.
Total OPEC+ output under quota fell to 27.68 million barrels per day in March, against a quota of 36.73 million, a gap of about 9 million barrels largely due to war-related disruptions. Iran, an OPEC+ member, is not subject to production quotas and has blocked the Strait in response to US-Israeli strikes that began February 28. US retaliatory measures now target Iranian oil exports. Russia, despite benefiting from high energy prices, faces challenges meeting its own quota due to Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil infrastructure.
Amena Bakr of Kpler called the UAE's exit "a big deal," noting its planned output increase to five million barrels per day by 2027, up from its last quota of 3.5 million. ADNOC, the UAE's state oil company, pledged $55 billion for new projects over the next two years. Iraq and Kazakhstan, both accused of exceeding quotas, could consider leaving, raising concerns about further fragmentation.
OPEC+ claims stability while ignoring the UAE's exit, even as its production shortfall hits 9 million barrels. The group's show of unity masks growing fractures and overstates its control over oil flows. With real supply hobbled by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the quota hike is more about optics than output. Nigeria's oil-dependent economy feels every global disruption, yet has no seat at the table shaping these decisions.
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