Nigeria's headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, up from 15.06 per cent in February, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The year-on-year increase marks a significant drop compared to March 2025, when inflation stood at 27.35 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, inflation in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent, a 2.17 percentage point rise from February's 2.01 per cent. The NBS Consumer Price Index and Inflation Report attributed the rise to price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which contributed 5.55 percentage points, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 3.26 percentage points and transport at 1.80 percentage points. In contrast, recreation, sports, and culture had zero contribution, while alcoholic beverages, tobacco, narcotics, and insurance and financial services each contributed 0.02 percentage points.
The CPI value reached 135.4 in March 2026, a 5.4-point increase from 130.0 in February. Food inflation stood at 14.31 per cent year-on-year, down from 25.22 per cent in March 2025. Month-on-month food inflation decreased to 4.17 per cent from 4.69 per cent in February, attributed to price changes in yams, ginger, cassava tuber, groundnuts, Irish potato, ogbono/apon, tomatoes, and cassava flour. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, was 16.21 per cent year-on-year, down from 25.12 per cent in March 2025. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation rose to 4.03 per cent from 0.89 per cent in February. Energy inflation was 6.6 per cent, farm produce 4.6 per cent, goods 5.5 per cent, services 2.6 per cent, and imported food 1.1 per cent.
Urban inflation was 14.64 per cent year-on-year and 3.16 per cent month-on-month, up from 2.55 per cent in February. Rural inflation was higher at 17.22 per cent year-on-year and surged to 6.73 per cent month-on-month from 0.71 per cent. State-level data showed Bayelsa had the highest year-on-year inflation at 27.37 per cent, followed by Sokoto at 26.03 per cent and Bauchi at 23.67 per cent. Osun recorded the lowest at 5.25 per cent, followed by Kano at 9.85 per cent and Kaduna at 10.38 per cent. Month-on-month food inflation was highest in Sokoto at 11.78 per cent, then Niger at 8.59 per cent and Gombe at 8.10 per cent.
The most striking detail in the inflation report is the sharp divergence between rural and urban inflation, with rural prices rising at 6.73 per cent month-on-month compared to 3.16 per cent in cities. This suggests that monetary policies focused on urban economic indicators may be missing the deeper distress in rural areas, where food production and distribution networks are likely under greater strain despite the national food inflation decline.
Globally, this reflects a broader trend in developing economies where inflation data masks regional imbalances, often leaving rural populations more vulnerable to price shocks. Nigeria's core inflation falling from 25.12 per cent to 16.21 per cent over a year indicates some success in stabilizing non-food, non-energy prices, but the resurgence in month-on-month core inflation to 4.03 per cent from 0.89 per cent signals renewed pressure that could undermine confidence in ongoing economic reforms.
For Nigeria, the data underscores the fragility of recent disinflation gains, especially given the heavy contribution of food and transport costs. While no direct African or diaspora link is stated, the pattern has implications for other African nations reliant on volatile agricultural markets and uneven price transmission between urban and rural zones.
The key development to watch is whether the Central Bank responds to the rural inflation spike with targeted interventions, or if it defaults to broad monetary tightening that could further strain household consumption in already stressed regions.
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