Nigeria's annual inflation rate increased to 15.38 percent in March 2026, up from 15.06 percent in February, halting an 11-month period of declining prices. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed the rise to a sharp monthly price increase of 4.2 percent, the highest since January 2025. Food inflation, a major component of the index, rose to 14.31 percent year-on-year from 12.12 percent the previous month, despite being lower than the 25.22 percent recorded in March 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food prices grew by 4.17 percent, down from 4.69 percent in February.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural and energy items, reached 16.21 percent year-on-year, with a monthly rise of 4.03 percent, up from 0.89 percent in February. The main drivers of headline inflation were Food and non-alcoholic Beverages at 5.55%, Restaurants & Accommodation Services at 3.26%, and Transport at 1.80%. State-level data showed Bayelsa, Sokoto, and Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation, while Kano, Oyo, and Katsina had the lowest. Month-on-month food inflation spiked in Sokoto, Niger, and Gombe, whereas Katsina, Ogun, and Adamawa saw declines.
The Consumer Price Index stood at 135.4 in March 2026, a 5.4-point rise from February's 130.0. Statistician-General Adeyemi Adeniran noted the CPI now uses 2024 as the base year following a rebasing exercise, with weights based on 2023 consumption patterns. He cautioned against direct state-to-state comparisons due to differing consumption baskets.
The reversal of an 11-month disinflation trend in March 2026, with inflation climbing to 15.38 percent, places pressure on households already strained by rising food prices, particularly in states like Bayelsa and Sokoto where food inflation exceeded 33 percent and 28 percent respectively. The 4.2 percent monthly price surge—the steepest since early 2025—signals that temporary relief from high costs may have been short-lived, even as core inflation jumped to 16.21 percent, indicating broad-based price pressures beyond food.
This uptick comes despite lower year-on-year food inflation compared to March 2025's 25.22 percent, suggesting that while prices are not rising as rapidly as they did a year earlier, the recent acceleration breaks a hard-won trend of gradual price stabilization. The NBS highlighted shifting prices of key staples like tomatoes, cassava, and yam, which continue to drive national inflation, reflecting persistent supply-side challenges in agriculture and distribution.
For millions of Nigerians, especially low- and middle-income families, the renewed price growth erodes purchasing power at a time when wage adjustments remain stagnant. Urban residents in Lagos, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom saw month-on-month inflation declines, but those in northern and southern interior states face sharper daily cost increases, deepening regional disparities in living standards.
The rebasing of the CPI to 2024 with updated consumption weights adds methodological rigor, but also underscores how inflation experiences vary widely across states—meaning national averages may mask localized crises. This divergence complicates one-size-fits-all policy responses, especially as food remains the dominant cost driver in most households' budgets.
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