Sports • 1h ago
NCAA bracket predictions: Model releases surprising March Madness 2026 tournament picks to target
The Texas Longhorns were one of the last four teams into the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket and after beating NC State in a First Four matchup on Tuesday, they'll take on the BYU Cougars in a first-round matchup on Thursday. BYU is the No. 6 seed in the West Region, while Texas is the No. 11 seed after getting in despite losing five of six games before the NCAA Tournament 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:25 p.m. ET at the Moda Center in Portland.
Who wins BYU vs. Texas and which first-round matchups should you be keeping a close eye on as you fill out your 2026 March Madness bracket picks? You only have until Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET to enter 2026 March Madness picks. Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.
It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.
Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Three 2026 March Madness bracket games to watch
One of the most intriguing 2026 March Madness matchups to watch: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU in the East region. This is one of just five first-round matchups between power conference teams, and these squads have similar profiles. Ohio State's average point differential of +7.0 is slightly better than TCU's mark of +6.2, but the Horned Frogs are a bit better versus Top 25 teams (3-6 record) than the Buckeyes (2-8). OSU does own a 4-0 all-time record versus TCU, but 9-seeds have gotten the better of 8-seeds in recent tourneys, winning 64.3% of matchups since 2018.
Another 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup to keep an eye on is No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF in the East Region. UCLA is in the Big Dance for the 54th time, which is tied for the third-most all-time. The Bruins have the sixth-most experienced roster in college basketball and are led by head coach Mick Cronin, who took them to the 2021 Final Four as a No. 11 seed. UCF is just 1-5 in NCAA Tournament games all-time, with its lone win coming against VCU in the Round of 64 in 2019.
Another 2026 March Madness game to watch out for: No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida in the East Region. Both teams are entering the 2026 NCAA Tournament with huge question marks, with Louisville freshmen Mikel Brown Jr. listed as questionable with a back injury and South Florida head coach Bryan Hodgson reportedly up for the Providence job. However, it should be an exciting contest nonetheless, with both teams ranking top 20 in the nation in scoring and top 12 in possessions per game. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo. You can only see the model's 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.
How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.