Nigeria's import bill crept up marginally in the final quarter of 2025, with the All-commodity group import index edging 0.11 per cent higher, according to data released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The bureau traced the uptick to firmer prices for paper-making inputs, paperboard goods, textiles, mineral products and building materials such as stone, plaster, cement, asbestos and mica. Export receipts fared slightly better, rising 0.12 per cent on the back of stronger prices for miscellaneous manufactured items, vehicles, aircraft parts, vessels, base metals, plastics and rubber. The slim gain left the country's All-Products Terms of Trade—export prices divided by import prices—up a razor-thin 0.01 per cent. The same pattern played out across regions: export prices to every market except Oceania climbed 0.12 per cent, while import prices from all sources rose 0.11 per cent, nudging the regional terms of trade up 0.01 per cent. The Netherlands, India, Spain, France and Canada remained Nigeria's top export destinations during the quarter.
A 0.01 per cent terms-of-trade improvement is statistical noise, yet it confirms that Africa's largest oil exporter is still struggling to squeeze value out of non-oil shipments. The NBS lists vehicles, aircraft parts and miscellaneous manufactured articles as the export price leaders, betraying a portfolio heavy on re-exports and light on locally manufactured goods.
Behind the decimal-point movements lies a familiar trap: Nigeria's import basket is swelling on everyday industrial inputs—paper, textiles, cement components—while export gains hinge on volatile items like vessels and aircraft that rarely touch Nigerian factories. The implication is a terms-of-trade gain that exists only on paper, not in jobs or factory output.
For the Nigerian shopper, the message is blunt: the naira's external purchasing power barely moved, so imported school notebooks, clothing and building materials will not get cheaper. Construction firms and garment traders who hoped for relief from a stronger trade position will still pay more for raw inputs, a cost certain to filter through to rent and clothing prices.
Zoom out and the pattern is clear: quarterly reports keep flashing micro-gains, yet the structural deficit persists—Nigeria sells what it does not make and buys what it should. Until local mills, textile plants and cement works reclaim market share, these marginal indices will remain a mirage of progress.
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