Japan's fertility rate declined to 1.14 in the past year, marking a record low and the tenth consecutive year of decrease, according to official data released Wednesday. The total fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have, dropped by 0.01 from the previous year. The number of births in Japan fell by nearly 15,000 to just over 670,000, the lowest since records began in 1899. This figure excludes non-Japanese babies born in Japan and Japanese citizens born abroad, which were included in preliminary data released in February showing around 706,000 births. The decline is accelerating faster than projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, which in 2023 estimated the birth count would not fall below 680,000 until 2040. Last month's census revealed Japan's total population dropped by 2.5 percent over five years, the sharpest decline on record. The falling birthrate contributes to labour shortages, rising social security costs, and a shrinking tax base. Despite these challenges, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is advocating for stricter controls on foreign inflows, resisting immigration as a solution. Government efforts to encourage marriage and childbirth have included dating apps, increased child-rearing allowances, and parental leave subsidies, with limited success.
The same government warning of a collapsing population is pushing policies that restrict foreign inflows, creating a direct contradiction in its demographic strategy. Boosting childbirth incentives while resisting immigration undermines the urgency of filling a shrinking workforce. Japanese citizens are now living through a reality where fewer babies mean fewer schools, weaker local economies, and heavier burdens on the young. The numbers are falling faster than even official models predicted, leaving little room for half-measures.
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