IMF Projects Rise In Nigeria’s Debt-To-GDP Ratio To 33.1% In 2027

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that Nigeria's debt-to-gross domestic product ratio will increase to 33.1 per cent by 2027. This projection is contained in the IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor Report, which was launched at the ongoing IMF-World Bank spring meetings in Washington DC. The report notes that the country's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from 32.3 per cent in 2026, and was 35.3 per cent in 2025.

The IMF's forecast comes as President Bola Tinubu has requested that the national assembly approve external loans totalling $6 billion. The Debt Management Office has also reported that Nigeria's total public debt rose to N159.27 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The IMF has warned of a deteriorating fiscal outlook, citing the potential impact of conflict in the Middle East and a correction in artificial intelligence-related asset valuations.

Rodrigo Valdés, the IMF's director of fiscal affairs, has advised countries to strengthen their domestic revenue mobilisation and avoid discretionary demand stimulus. He also warned against broad-based energy subsidies or excise reductions, which he said can distort price signals and are fiscally costly. The IMF has urged countries to take a cautious approach to fiscal policy, given the already high levels of debt in many places.

The global gross government debt has risen to nearly 94 per cent of GDP in 2025, and is projected to reach 100 per cent by 2029. The IMF has noted that several reinforcing forces could weigh on the fiscal outlook, including the potential impact of conflict and a correction in asset valuations.

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