Hamas has flatly refused to surrender its weapons as part of any cease-fire deal for Gaza, a senior Palestinian official told The Associated Press on Tuesday, scuttling the core demand of the second-stage blueprint unveiled last month by U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
The rejection leaves the Trump administration's three-phase plan in limbo barely two weeks after Witkoff announced its rollout. Under that framework, phase two was to deliver a "permanent" truce once the enclave was stripped of heavy arms and Israeli forces pulled out completely. Hamas's armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, views its rocket stockpile and tunnel network as insurance against future Israeli offensives and has repeatedly told mediators it will not discuss disarmament until a full Israeli withdrawal and the release of all Palestinian prisoners are guaranteed, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.
Israeli negotiators, backed by Washington, have insisted that demilitarisation must come first, arguing that any lingering military capability would simply restart the cycle of violence. The stand-off has frozen shuttle diplomacy that had briefly raised hopes of ending the 16-month war that has levelled much of Gaza and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. Egyptian and Qatari brokers have now stepped back, warning both sides that no further shuttle visits are planned until at least one party softens its position.
Hamas's refusal to disarm is less ideological stubbornness than a calculated bet that time is on its side. By holding the one lever—its weapons—that Israel and Washington treat as non-negotiable, the movement is gambling that mounting civilian casualties and global outrage will eventually force Tel-Aviv to drop the demilitarisation clause rather than risk another drawn-out campaign.
The impasse exposes a deeper shift in Middle-East conflict diplomacy: outside powers no longer command the coercive tools that once made armed groups trade bullets for ballots. Where the 1990s Oslo process dangled billions in aid and UN peacekeepers, today's brokers—Qatar, Egypt and a Trump envoy with no aid purse—can offer only vague security assurances that Hamas judges worthless once Israeli tanks roll back to the fence.
For Nigeria and other petro-dependent economies, a prolonged Gaza war keeps Brent crude hovering above $75, padding federal revenues but also sustaining fuel-subsidy bills that now exceed education and health budgets combined. More subtly, the stalemate deepens the global south's scepticism of U.S.-led peace templates that demand disarmament from non-state actors while leaving regional nuclear monopolies untouched—a talking point already echoing in West African debates over whether ECOWAS should keep recognising Israel's observer status.
Watch whether Hamas's Lebanese ally Hizbullah tries to widen the front; if rockets fly from Tyre, oil markets will test the $90 mark and CBN Governor Cardoso will face fresh pressure to defend the naira against an import bill swollen by pricier diesel.
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