President Bola Ahmed Tinubu removed fuel subsidies on May 29, 2023, marking a sharp break from past energy policies. This decision was followed by the enactment of electricity sector decentralisation, with 11 states entering regulatory transition frameworks for power generation and distribution by 2026. Nigeria's net usable foreign reserves rose from under $4 billion to $34.8 billion by the end of 2025, reaching nearly $50 billion in gross reserves by early 2026, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria and Reuters. GDP growth improved to 3.4% in 2024 and 4.23% in the second quarter of 2025, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. Fitch upgraded Nigeria's sovereign rating to B with a Stable outlook, citing stronger policy credibility. Infrastructure projects advanced significantly: the Kaduna–Kano rail corridor reached 53% completion by September 2025 and approximately 60% by 2026, while the Kano–Maradi line progressed from 5% to 61% completion. The Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway achieved about 70% completion on Section 1 by 2025, and the Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway entered execution. In June 2025, N4.232 trillion was distributed across federal, state, and local governments through FAAC, boosting fiscal capacity at all levels. Earlier military administrations under Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha implemented sweeping reforms through centralised authority, including the creation of the FRSC, relocation of the federal capital, and fiscal consolidation without IMF support. Olusegun Obasanjo's civilian administration secured debt relief and liberalised telecommunications, while Muhammadu Buhari completed the Second Niger Bridge and expanded transport networks.
President Tinubu champions decentralisation while inheriting a reform model built on the very centralised power he now dismantles. The same command-style governance once used by Babangida and Abacha to push through structural changes is absent in Tinubu's democratic context, yet the economic outcomes—rising reserves, growth, and project progress—are being measured against that legacy. This creates a paradox: success is framed by metrics typical of top-down rule, but achieved through a slower, consensus-driven system. Nigerians are expected to endure the pain of reform without the shield of authoritarian efficiency that once delivered similar results.
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