The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof. Joseph Terlumun Utsev, warned that 14,118 communities in 266 local government areas across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory are slated to face high flood risk in 2026. He delivered the warning while presenting the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, an event organised by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency under the theme "Smart Water Resources Management‑Moving from Oil to Water Based Economy".
The outlook identified the high‑risk states as Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara and the FCT. Moderate flood risk is projected for 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states, excluding Ekiti, while minimal risk covers 923 communities in 77 LGAs in 24 states.
High‑risk periods run from April to November, with 9,021 communities in 188 LGAs vulnerable in April‑June, 14,158 in 263 LGAs during July‑September, and 11,575 in 224 LGAs in October‑November. Moderate risk follows a similar timeline, affecting 8,225 communities in 228 LGAs (April‑June), 15,621 in 407 LGAs (July‑September) and 9,263 in 272 LGAs (October‑November).
The minister highlighted that flash and urban flooding could hit major cities such as Abuja, Lagos, Kano and Port Harcourt, while coastal and riverine flooding may impact Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo, threatening fishing, wildlife and navigation. He urged state governments, local authorities, disaster agencies, farmers and community leaders to study the findings and take preparatory steps.
Prof. Utsev's stark projection that over fourteen thousand communities will confront high flood risk underscores the urgency of bolstering Nigeria's water‑management infrastructure. The detailed breakdown by month and locality reveals that the flood season will strain agricultural cycles and urban drainage systems simultaneously.
The forecast arrives as Nigeria pushes a "water‑based economy" narrative, yet the same report flags inadequate drainage, low attention to water‑facility upkeep and a lack of flood‑resilient structures as drivers of flash floods in cities like Lagos and Abuja. This mismatch suggests policy rhetoric is outpacing on‑ground capacity.
Rural households dependent on farming and livestock, as well as urban dwellers in flood‑prone districts, face heightened exposure to loss of crops, homes and livelihoods. Early preparation could mitigate economic setbacks for millions of Nigerians.
Repeated high‑risk alerts point to a broader pattern of climate‑related vulnerabilities that Nigeria has struggled to address, hinting that future flood seasons may become increasingly severe without decisive investment in resilient water management.
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