The intensifying crisis in the Persian Gulf is having far-reaching implications for global food security, warns the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The crisis, which is disrupting trade corridors, is triggering a severe shock to global commodity flows. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by more than 90 percent, severely impacting the transport of vital commodities such as crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertilizers.
FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero notes that the crisis is not just an energy shock but a systemic shock affecting food systems worldwide. Damaged fertilizer supply chains and rising input costs for farmers are major concerns. Fertilizer prices have already risen sharply, with nitrogen fertilizer costs spiking due to soaring natural gas prices. Farmers are facing a dual cost shock, with rising fuel costs affecting the entire agricultural value chain.
FAO projections indicate that global fertilizer prices could average 15 to 20 percent higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists. The duration of the disruption will determine its global impact. If the situation is short-lived, around one month, impacts may remain contained. However, a prolonged disruption of three months or longer could affect planting decisions and crop yields for key staples such as wheat, rice, and maize.
Countries dependent on fertilizer imports, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, and several East African nations, could be particularly vulnerable to supply bottlenecks and high input costs. Reduced fertilizer use and rising production costs could hit crop yields and food availability in many parts of the world.
The FAO's warning highlights the critical need for international coordination to address the crisis. The organization's call for urgent action to stabilise trade routes and provide emergency support for vulnerable nations is timely. As the crisis persists, it is essential that policymakers prioritize agricultural resilience and take concrete steps to mitigate its impact on food security. The rising fertilizer prices and disrupted supply chains have significant implications for food availability and affordability in many parts of the world. If left unaddressed, the crisis could exacerbate food insecurity, particularly in economies where agricultural input costs form a large share of farm production expenses.
