The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a crucial waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is at risk of being targeted by Iran if the US launches a ground assault on its territory. This threat has significant implications for global crude oil prices and energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, another vital shipping route, has been a subject of concern in the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Iran has been blocking access to vessels of countries it considers enemies, while granting passage to friendly nations. This move has driven up global crude oil prices and led to an energy crisis worldwide. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, also known as the "Gate of Tears," is a narrow waterway at the southern tip of the Red Sea, separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea. It is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, with over 26,000 ships transiting through the Suez Canal in 2023.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that 12 per cent of world oil shipments passed through Bab al-Mandeb in the first half of 2023. With Iranian forces closing off access to the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, exports via the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu have tripled to a record high of around four million barrels a day. The region is one of the most highly militarised zones in the world, with major military bases in Djibouti and a naval operation launched by the European Union in 2024 to protect shipping in the Red Sea.
The Iranian threat to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a stark reminder of the escalating tensions in the Middle East. The US and its allies must take concrete steps to protect this critical shipping route, which is essential for global energy supplies. The region's high militarisation and the recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea highlight the need for a sustained naval presence to prevent further disruptions. The economic implications of a closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait are severe, with oil prices likely to soar and trade flows severely impacted. The international community must work together to prevent a crisis that would have far-reaching consequences for everyday Nigerians.
