Aliko Dangote has indicated he is likely to build a $17 billion oil refinery in Mombasa, Kenya, citing the port's depth and regional market size. He told the Financial Times the project, which would process 650,000 barrels of crude per day, is contingent on Kenyan President William Ruto providing land, regional financing, and protection from cheap fuel imports. Dangote said he could still consider Tanzania if it resolves internal issues, but expressed concern over the lack of consultation from Tanzanian leadership after plans were announced without President Samia Suluhu Hassan's knowledge. He noted that shipping crude to Mombasa would be more viable than relying on a pipeline from Uganda to Tanga.
The refinery would serve a growing regional demand, with Dangote highlighting Kenya's larger economy and higher fuel consumption. He emphasized that no refinery can survive without protection from foreign fuel dumping, particularly from Russia and India. "The ball is in the hands of President Ruto," Dangote said. "Whatever President Ruto says is what I'll do." He added that if an agreement is reached, construction could begin this year.
Dangote's existing refinery in Lagos, the world's largest single-train facility at 650,000 barrels per day, has reached full capacity. It has supplied jet fuel to European and African airlines amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The plant has also exported urea fertiliser across Africa, operating well beyond Nigeria's domestic needs. A senior Dangote executive said the current global situation has significantly increased profit margins on fuel and fertiliser. Dangote confirmed plans to double the Lagos refinery's capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day within 30 months, matching Reliance Industries' output.
Dangote pushes Kenya as the site for a $17bn refinery while dismissing Tanzania, even though he once backed a Tanzanian location without consulting its president. His reliance on William Ruto's approval for land and fuel protection exposes how African megaprojects hinge on personal diplomacy, not regional frameworks. If Ruto delays or refuses, the entire plan collapses despite the stated regional benefits. This mirrors the same unpredictability that long stalled Nigeria's own refining ambitions.
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