Africa's private capital market recorded $16.1 billion in disclosed deal value during the first quarter of 2026, driven by a surge in large-scale transactions despite a decline in overall deal volume. The number of transactions fell to 172 from 188 in the previous quarter and 201 a year earlier. Stears, an African research platform, attributed the shift to a strategic reallocation of capital toward bigger investments rather than a market slowdown. Two deals dominated the quarter: the $6.2 billion MTN–IHS transaction and the $4 billion Dangote Refinery financing, together accounting for about 63 percent of total disclosed value. These mega deals underscore investor focus on critical infrastructure gaps in Nigeria, particularly in telecommunications and energy.
While mega deals concentrated value, large transactions valued between $25 million and $75 million increased slightly, indicating growth in the mid-market segment. Egyptian firms led in this category, making up 55 percent of all large transactions, primarily through real estate financing deals linked to urban development. The Big Five—Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa—remained dominant in overall activity, though Ghana's deal count was matched by Uganda and surpassed by Morocco and Zambia in single-country transactions. Some of Ghana's activity stemmed from multi-country investments originating in Nigeria, including British International Investment's $15 million mezzanine debt for Starsight Energy and Metro Africa Xpress Inc.'s (MAX) $24 million fundraise. Financial services led sectoral activity with 29 percent of all deals, nearly 10 percent of which supported MSME lending. West Africa accounted for 48 percent of financial services transactions, reinforcing its role as a fintech and lending hub. Key sectors included Industrials, Energy & Utilities, Information Technology, and Consumer Discretionary. Emerging trends included mobility investments in East Africa, focusing on electric vehicles and battery-swapping, and early-stage AI funding for startups like Cybervergent and KNOT Technologies. M&A activity remained strong in Communication Services (31 percent) and Industrials (30 percent), including the IHS Holdings acquisition and Fera Science's purchase of Qotho Minerals' South African operations. Afreximbank led Multilateral Development Bank participation with 12 transactions, tied to its new Accelerator Programme, which granted $0.25 million in seed capital to eight startups, including Nigeria's Zowasel and OnePort 365. The bank also joined major deals such as the $4 billion Dangote Refinery financing, a $50 million loan for Spiro, and a $1.75 billion syndicated investment in Angola's Sonangol.
Afreximbank claims to boost African startups with $0.25 million in seed funding while simultaneously backing billion-dollar deals dominated by Nigerian and Angolan energy giants, revealing a stark imbalance in access to capital. This disparity means young Nigerian innovators at Zowasel receive a fraction of what established entities like Dangote Refinery secure in a single transaction. While the bank celebrates its accelerator programme, the scale of its other investments suggests priority lies with consolidating existing power structures rather than nurturing new entrants. For Nigerian founders, the message is clear: breakthrough funding remains reserved for those already at the top.
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