Tech • 1h ago
‘A Rigged and Dangerous Product’: The Wildest Week for Prediction Markets Yet
**Prediction Market Industry Faces Turbulent Week Amidst Funding and Regulatory Challenges**
In a week marked by significant funding and regulatory upheaval, prediction market company Kalshi celebrated a major milestone: raising $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation. This valuation more than doubles the company's worth from just a few months prior. The funding round comes on the heels of a tumultuous week for the industry, with Nevada temporarily banning Kalshi by issuing a temporary restraining order and Arizona filing criminal charges accusing the company of running an illegal gambling business.
The same day, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted a video on X, showing the company's board members participating in an impromptu exercise session on the sidewalk, laughing and smiling as they did push-ups. The video captures the jubilant mood of the team, which had ample reason to celebrate their recent success.
In a separate development, Polymarket, a rival prediction market platform, scored a major deal with Major League Baseball, further solidifying its presence in the world of professional sports. However, the company's expansion comes as US Senators introduced legislation aimed at banning specific types of markets offered by the industry, including those related to government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome.
Senator Chris Murphy, a cosponsor of the bill and a vocal critic of the industry, described prediction markets as "a rigged and dangerous product" that poses "a brand-new source of mind-bending corruption." Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana countered that the company already bans insider trading and markets directly tied to death and war, and supports regulators and policymakers in their efforts to keep the markets safe and responsible in America. Polymarket did not return requests for comment.
The existing law gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission the authority to ban offerings related to assassination, war, terrorism, and other subjects deemed contrary to the public interest. However, some prediction markets have struggled to draw clear lines between permissible and impermissible categories, leading to confusion among users. A recent market on the fate of Iran's supreme leader, for example, was misinterpreted by some as allowing a payout if he "left office" through death.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, which operates largely outside of the United States, offers a range of war-related markets, which are unlikely to be impacted by the proposed legislation. The platform currently offers a market on whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be "out" by certain dates, with one user wagering $177,000 that he would be out by March 31. Polymarket would likely resolve the market to "yes" if Netanyahu were to leave office, regardless of the circumstances.