The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria's headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March, up from 15.06 per cent in February, marking the first increase after 13 consecutive months of decline. This reversal follows global pressures from the Middle East conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, which has driven up energy prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed month-on-month inflation at 4.18 per cent, more than double February's 2.01 per cent. Food inflation stood at 14.31 per cent year-on-year, down from 25.22 per cent in March 2025, while core inflation, excluding volatile agricultural and energy items, was 16.21 per cent year-on-year. Month-on-month core inflation jumped to 4.03 per cent from 0.89 per cent in February. Rural inflation reached 17.22 per cent year-on-year, with a sharp monthly rise of 6.73 per cent, compared to urban inflation at 14.64 per cent and 3.16 per cent monthly. At the state level, Bayelsa recorded the highest annual inflation at 27.37 per cent, followed by Sokoto (26.03 per cent) and Bauchi (23.67 per cent). Zamfara had the highest monthly increase at 10.77 per cent. Lagos recorded a low monthly rise of 1.54 per cent. Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), described the trend as a worrying resurgence of cost-driven pressures threatening recent disinflation gains.
Dr. Muda Yusuf of the CPPE has rightly pointed to the fragility of Nigeria's disinflation gains, as the March data reveals a sharp reversal in month-on-month trends despite year-on-year improvements. The jump to 15.38 per cent inflation, with rural areas like Bayelsa and Sokoto bearing the heaviest burden, exposes how external shocks such as Middle East-driven energy price hikes can quickly erode domestic economic progress.
Behind the numbers lies a deeper structural flaw: Nigeria's persistent vulnerability to supply-side shocks in food and energy. The fact that month-on-month food inflation surged to 4.17 per cent and core inflation nearly quadrupled in a single month indicates that underlying economic pressures are not being addressed by current policy frameworks. The CPPE's call for a broader strategy beyond monetary tightening reflects growing concern that interest rate adjustments alone cannot fix systemic issues like food distribution, energy access, and transport logistics.
For millions of Nigerians, especially in rural communities where inflation hit 6.73 per cent in one month, this rebound translates directly into higher daily expenses and tighter household budgets. Families in Bayelsa, Sokoto, and Bauchi are already feeling the strain, with basic food items becoming less predictable in price and availability. This erosion of purchasing power risks deepening poverty in regions with limited income flexibility.
The pattern fits a recurring cycle in Nigeria's economy: brief disinflation followed by sharp rebounds when global or seasonal pressures emerge. Without long-term investment in agricultural resilience, energy infrastructure, and supply chain stability, the country remains trapped in a reactive economic mode, perpetually vulnerable to forces beyond its borders.
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