Political Editor at Arise News, Sumner Sambo, has warned that the All Progressives Congress, APC, risks political miscalculation by appearing overconfident ahead of the 2027 general election. Speaking on The Morning Show on Monday, Sambo described the APC's current strategy as overstretched, cautioning that the narrow margin of President Bola Tinubu's victory in the 2023 election should temper any assumptions of an easy re-election. He pointed out that opposition figures Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso collectively recorded vote totals close to Tinubu's, underscoring the fragility of the APC's position. Sambo argued that the ruling party's actions have unintentionally pushed these opposition leaders toward unity, creating a formidable challenge for 2027. He stressed that allowing such alignment contradicts sound political strategy, which would aim to keep rivals fragmented. "I'm thinking that the APC has overplayed itself," Sambo said, adding that the presidency may have "pushed their luck too far." He urged APC strategists to reassess their approach and avoid overconfidence, noting that the closeness of the last election results makes future outcomes uncertain.
Sumner Sambo's critique cuts to the core of President Bola Tinubu's political gamble: the assumption that executive power can indefinitely shape opposition dynamics without consequence. By allowing Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso to drift toward unity, the APC has effectively enabled the formation of a coalition that nearly matched Tinubu's 2023 numbers. This is not mere speculation—it reflects the actual vote distribution from the last election, a fact Sambo rightly emphasizes.
The deeper issue lies in the APC's reliance on institutional leverage rather than grassroots appeal. Instead of broadening its base, the party appears to be tightening control, a move that alienates potential allies and fuels opposition consolidation. Sambo's observation that smaller opposition groups are now considering alignment shows the ripple effect of perceived overreach.
For ordinary Nigerians, especially younger voters and those in opposition strongholds, this shift could mean a more polarized political landscape with clearer alternatives to the APC. A united opposition may not guarantee victory, but it does increase electoral competitiveness.
This moment fits a recurring pattern in Nigerian politics: ruling parties often mistake control for dominance, only to be blindsided by coordinated opposition resurgence.
